Would there be coalition government of strange bedfellows? (Part 3)

‘Kingmaker’ or not PAS is likely to join forces with BN

PAS president Datuk Seri Haji Abdul Hadi Awang has gone on record to say that the Islamist party can be likened to a ‘kingmaker’ in the course of GE14.

At a federal level, to me, Hadi’s claim seems to be farfetched as it would be rash or almost impossible to envision that Barisan Nasional (BN) would win fewer than 111 parliamentary seats.

Mathematically too, the scenario of BN wining fewer than 111 seats is almost impossible.

The only possibility of toppling the present caretaker government is if a ‘Malay Tsunami’ happens. This was cited in articles published by local news portal, MalaysiaKini recently.

Wait, let’s be clear. The definition of a ‘Malay Tsunami’ (the real Tsunami, not just big waves) is if 30% of the support from the Malays previously given to Umno shifts to opposition parties.

As far as I am concerned, a Malay Tsunami will not happen, at least not this GE14. But, there are no guarantees that will not happen during GE15.

Hadi’s ‘kingmaker’ scenario then does hold water. What were the reasons behind his statement and what was his motivation for PAS to contest about 160 parliamentary seats?

Allow me to speculate on this.

It’s public knowledge that PAS has bitter experiences with component parties which make up Pakatan Harapan (PH) namely, Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) and the Democratic Action Party (DAP).

PAN members were perceived as a group of betrayers while DAP leaders were seen as the instigators who caused PAN leaders and members to betray PAS.

DAP leaders were also accused of directly interfering with PAS’s most recent internal party elections.

At the time, temperatures hit ‘boiling point’ when some of DAP leaders vehemently opposed PAS’ initiative to strengthen sharia law in Malaysia via the RUU355 move.

This resulted in PAS being ‘left out’ of the opposition coalition while some opined that it was PAS which rejected the offer to join PH.

A wild assumption is also rife that the main reason as to why PAS was willing to fund and contest the 160 seats was to teach PKR and DAP a lesson.

The lesson  being Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and DAP could continue to enjoy the current political success if they had not ‘borrowed’ PAS’ strength.

Note that PAS is seen to be the second to Umno in terms of having total number of members and branches, election campaign machinery, and loyalist voters.

PAS is also standing by the notion that the party sacrificed the most for Pakatan Rakyat opposition block during GE12 and GE13.

Now, PAS’ main priority is no longer to capture Putrajaya. They just want to be ‘the third force’ to be reckoned with.

Assuming that what I predicted in my previous article, entitled The Fall of Selangor Pakatan Harapan State Government turns out to be true, the fall of the Selangor state government does not mean BN will take over.

And, it’s also almost impossible for BN to win or increase the number of its state seats from 11 to 29 – 29 which is the minimum number of state seats needed to form a simple majority government Selangor.

If the Selangor state government losses two or even five seats to BN (for example), the opposition coalition party still has the largest representation at in the state legislative assembly but it would fall short of forming a simple majority government.

This is where PAS’ role as a kingmaker can become apparent to swing votes to whomever it chooses.

And if PAS is offered a ‘sweet deal’ of governing Selangor by forming a coalition government, current developments show that the party would likely be partial to BN as the acts inflicted by DAP and PKR are almost impossible to forgive.